Prescient Game Theorist Predicts Iranian Victory

In attempting to liberate the Iranian people we may have very well walked into a prison ourselves.

Professor Jiang Xueqin (Professor Jiang) is the host of the popular youtube channel “Predictive History” which boasts 1.3 million followers. According to Wikipedia:

“The channel investigates whether a real-world version of psychohistory—the fictional mathematical science of mass human behavior described in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series—is feasible through the study of recurring historical structures, game theory, and long-term pattern recognition.”

He was a recent guest on the independent media platform “Breaking Points”. As the title suggests, Jiang believes the US will lose the war with Iran. In this candid 15 minute interview Jiang fearlessly explains what is really behind this Israeli/American assault on Iran. It’s not just about the oil or the liberation of Iranians from a decades long theocracy. I will summarize in the second half of this post.

Before dissecting his rationale and overarching perspective (which left Breaking Points hosts Saagar and Krystal at a loss for words), lets take a step back and examine why we ought to be confused about this assault on Iran last week…

The Trump/Vance ticket scored a convincing political victory 15 months ago by securing the electoral AND popular vote, in part by embracing the MAHA movement led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and promises to dissociate the US from the unpopular Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Gaza conflicts. Here is a montage of #47 stumping for peace during the campaign:

https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/2029136147457163383?s=20

@wideawake_media introduces the clip:

During his second presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed to dismantle "the entire globalist neocon establishment that is perpetually dragging us into endless wars, pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad".

"We should have never gone into the Middle East. Under my leadership, we will turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars."

"We're rebuilding our military stronger than ever before, and we are not going to deplete it again on stupid, senseless, endless wars."

and asks, “What happened? Why do so many people have such short memories?”

Why indeed.

Less than six months into his second term as POTUS, Trump committed to supporting a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities by the state of Israel with our own bombing campaign, claiming a decisive end to the regime’s nuclear program—a program which our own intelligence assured was nowhere near having any nuclear weapon capacity.

Recall that on June 19, 2025, Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, definitively reassured the public that there was no evidence that Iran had restarted its nuclear weapons program.

A day later, Gabbard, after careful consideration, came to the opposite conclusion. How quickly things change in the “intelligence” sphere.

Nonetheless, after a 12 day missile and bombing campaign President Trump claimed that the mission was accomplished. Iran’s (purported) nuclear weapons program had been decimated and no longer posed any threat to American interests.

So why are preemptive strikes against Iran necessary now, just nine months later?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that an attack was necessary because Iran would probably launch attacks against America in response to an imminent Israeli attack upon them.

The rationale was appropriately questioned. This country was now committing to preemptive strikes against a country of 90 million in anticipation of a response to a planned first strike by Israel? Achieving peace is very tricky these days. You have to act before your enemy AND your friend.

I am not a military strategist but why would we expect Iran not to respond even if the US struck first? And the more obvious question, wouldn’t it be easier to keep us safe by convincing Israel to not start a fight to begin with? Is our President getting pushed around by the whims of “America’s strongest ally in the Middle East”?

Not a good look for our image conscious POTUS. Rubio, like DNI Gabbard, tried to backtrack a day following his inconvenient statements. But he tried a slightly different approach—he pretended he didn’t say what he said. Surely he doesn’t believe that people have memories that short? Oh but he does:

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2028950000865005607?s=20

In his press conference on March 2, Pete Hegseth, Secretary of the aptly named Department of War, described the mission of the U.S. campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, as “laser-focused” on destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

“We’re hitting them surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically…”

He’s two out of three. Hegseth did not mention (or apologize for) the widely reported bombing of a girl’s school in Minab, Iran which left at least 153 dead, mainly children, according to BBC reporting.

That same day The Aramco Oil Refinery in Dahran, Saudi Arabia was struck by a drone attack, but from whom? An Iranian military source reported that

“The attack on Aramco was an Israeli false flag operation, adding that Israel’s goal is to distract the minds of regional countries from its crimes in attacking civilian sites in Iran.”

The Iranian source went further:

“According to data provided to us by intelligence sources, the port of Fujairah in the UAE is also one of the next targets of the Israelis in the false flag operation, and this regime intends to attack it.”

Israel denied the preposterous accusations. Certainly Israel would never independently strike targets that the US is attempting to protect in order to escalate a war in the Middle East.

However, one must ask, why would Iran choose to not claim responsibility for a successful strike on a strategic target?

Readers of this newsletter will know that I rarely miss an opportunity to remind us of how the events of 9/11 reframe how we interpret conflicting sources of information. This is World Trade Center 2, the South Tower blowing up:

And here are the only five people on the planet whom the public knows had foreknowledge of the event:

They were just employees of Urban Moving Systems who caught the attention of a woman in Union City, New Jersey when she observed them videotaping the South Tower exploding. They turned out to be Israeli citizens. twenty-four years ago ABC reported:

The driver of the van, Sivan Kurzberg, told the officers, "We are Israeli. We are not your problem. Your problems are our problems. The Palestinians are the problem."

No, their camera and tripod weren’t coincidentally pointing across the Hudson river at the WTC complex when the towers exploded. They admitted they were there to document the event for historical purposes. But it wasn’t their camera that “Maria”, the woman who reported them, found suspicious. It was their behavior. They were jubilant when the tower blew up.

2,753 civilians died in NYC that morning.

On September 17, 2001, Osama bin Laden issued a statement through Al Jazeera denying his involvement in the attacks on NYC and Washington D.C. less than a week earlier. CNN reported (emphasis mine):

In a statement issued to the Arabic satellite channel Al Jazeera, based in Qatar, bin Laden said, “The U.S. government has consistently blamed me for being behind every occasion its enemies attack it.

“I would like to assure the world that I did not plan the recent attacks, which seems to have been planned by people for personal reasons,” bin Laden’s statement said.

Once again, it is curious that the most infamous terrorist in history didn’t take credit for the most audacious act of terrorism against the most powerful country in the world.

Who do you suppose bin Laden believes America’s real enemies are?

Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War

And now to the interview with Professor Jiang. Krystal Ball reminded their audience that Jiang made three predictions in 2024:

1. Trump would be reelected to another term

2. Trump would attack Iran

3. America would lose that war

So why does he believe Iran will emerge victorious?

• Iran has been preparing for this for 20 years, and they have learned a lot about the American attack threats from the twelve day war last year.

• Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, making it much more difficult for the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, six Arab states bordering the Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) to sell their oil and obtain dollars which they invest heavily in the US Stock market. This waterway is also necessary for these countries to import necessities.

• Iran will go after desalination plants in Saudi Arabia which will put that country into a crisis in two weeks.

• Iran has a plethora of inexpensive drones which the US will be compelled to defend against with million dollar Patriot missiles. In this asymmetric war of attrition there is little chance that the US will be able to prevail.

In summary, Iran’s strategy is not to achieve a decisive military victory but instead to cause a financial collapse.

So why did Trump commit to this war? Three reasons, all valid in his opinion:

Hubris. With the quick success in toppling the Maduro government in Venezuela, Trump believes he can achieve quick results against Iran too.

Personal gain. The Saudi’s have invested $2 billion in the private equity firm (Affinity Partners) run by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Trump is also heavily financed by Israeli donor, Miriam Adelson who gave $250 million to his campaign and offered another quarter billion if he ran for a third term. While a third term is a remote possibility at this time, a state of emergency from a prolonged war with combat troops on the ground puts options on the table for the President.

Jiang omits another one of Trump’s personal motivations: to stay out of jail. Unless the entire trove of documents known as the Epstein files is a hoax, the President may have to answer some difficult questions regarding anything between his questionable choice of business associates to how many times he committed a capital crime.

For what it’s worth, Israeli PM Netanyahu also finds a prolonged war a convenient distraction from the very serious corruption charges he faces in his own country as well:

Finally and most interesting to me is eschatology, the part of theology concerned with death, judgment, and the final destiny of the soul and of humankind. Jiang matter-of-factly states that the world is run by secret societies, the illuminati, which has three major factions. The Freemasons who control the military apparatus in the US, the Sabbatean Frankists who control modern day Israel and the Jesuits who wield influence over the Vatican.

Generally speaking, all three believe that Israel’s emergence as the uncontested power in the Middle East is key to bringing about an “end of times” which will herald a heaven on Earth.

Saagar and Krystal blinked once and thanked the professor for appearing on their show. Not a single follow up question. I can understand. There was simply too much for them to unpack for their viewers.

The Jesuits, Freemasons and the Frankists are absolutely real, with documented histories going back centuries. Their existence is not secret, it is their true motivations which Jiang (and many others) believe are shrouded in secrecy.

We are entering territory which I enjoy exploring the most: the stuff we cannot be sure about. There are no undisputed facts. We have to use our intuition.

What do 33rd degree Freemasons talk about behind closed doors? What if their most secret meetings are taking place in bunkers deep below military bases or in the offices of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

The Jesuits, known for their intellectual and spiritual discipline as well as their irreverence towards secular power hold significant influence over the Papacy. The Library of the Vatican is one of the oldest and largest in the world. The public cannot access it. Why? What kind of information would be too important to destroy yet too dangerous for dissemination?

Followers of Frankism were primarily Jewish but completely reject Jewish norms.

From Wikipedia:

“Jacob Frank completely rejected Jewish norms, preaching to his followers that they were obligated to transgress moral boundaries, embracing antinomianism. The Frankists engaged in incest, orgies and sex rituals…”

and

“Antinomianism is a term used to describe any view which rejects laws or legalism and argues against moral, religious or social norms...”

Could the present Israeli state be run by Frankists pretending to be Jewish?

Who knows? But as Jiang concluded, the Epstein files are hinting at the fact that there is a deeper, darker layer behind the systems which control what the public is allowed to think and how it is allowed to behave while the controllers themselves transgress the moral boundaries we all attempt to abide by.

A Deeper Layer?

I think Jiang’s assessment is not just possible but highly plausible. An open and honest assessment of 9/11, the mysterious emergence of SARS-COV2 and the world-wide deployment of the modRNA shots as well as the JFK-like assassination of Charlie Kirk point to a reality far different than what corporate media insist we believe. More sinister still is how the public has been programmed to regard skeptics of these absurd, spoon-fed narratives first as kooky “conspiracy theorists” and then eventually as threats to society.

But with regard to the recent outbreak of war in the Middle East, the idea that factions with enormous influence over the world would be goading us into an Apocalyptic final act of the human story is terrifying—so terrifying that it is easier for most to not think about it, let alone take any action to prevent it from happening.

Personally I do not subscribe to an end-of-times event that brings heaven to those who survive it. I view the human condition as a dynamic and unfathomably diverse series of experiences that result from a dance between dark and light. There are forces which seek to control and others which seek to liberate. We see this interplay within ourselves, within those around us and in the information we are exposed to.

The forces organize and consolidate over time, exerting their influence over more and more individuals, in the form of nation-states, ideologies, religions and public policy.

Unfortunately, the light and dark often appear together. The “vaccine” freed us to travel while keeping us tethered to a tyrannical system of medical control. Wearing headgear allowed us to enter public places while restricting our breathing and signifying compliance to an arbitrary mandate. TSA checkpoints permit us to board, so long as we agree to be scanned and searched for explosives in our shoes or menacingly big tubes of toothpaste in our carry on bags.

The dance will never end. It’s what makes this, whatever this is, so interesting.

The major events of this millennium are indicative of a few wins for the bad guys. 9/11 and the passage of the Patriot Act signaled that we were willing to sacrifice the privacy of our communications for greater security if faced with an event of sufficient psychological impact.

The staggering level of government sponsored censorship of dissenting voices during the pandemic was an encouraging sign to the controllers that we would accept the idea that certain opinions should never be expressed if they threatened herd immunity and mentality.

If there are powerful factions who possess ancient and secret knowledge, what would they use it for, if not to control the rest of us? Wouldn’t that be the most obvious intention given that they aren’t willing to share what they know?

Total planetary control is where this must ultimately lead. If this is even possible it could not be accomplished openly from a castle or a citadel. That would be an inherently unstable situation as history has proven more than once on much smaller scales. Individuals, communities and nations would have to willingly surrender their fundamental nature, freedom, without knowing to whom they supplicate.

If there were a tiny group ruling the world they would have to be anonymous. And if those being ruled outnumber their rulers by a billion to one, they couldn’t be allowed to know that there were a tiny few who really in charge. They would have to be lulled into thinking that restrictions, scarcities, mandates, surveillance and censorship were no more than necessary inconveniences to manage their own tendency to hurt themselves and each other.

If a global authoritarian state was achievable, the United States, at least in a form defined in its own Constitution, would have to fall first. We have already seen the degradation of the individual rights codified in this document over the last twenty-five years. But the final blow will not be a military one, it will be financial.

So while there maybe eschatological interests pushing for a final showdown between the modern state of Israel and what has been its most powerful adversary in the Middle East, Iran, it might be a distraction from the bigger play: a step towards global authoritarianism.

According to professor Jiang’s assessment, Trump’s impetuous decision to launch attacks on Iran, whether from hubris, personal interests or the fulfillment of a Biblical prophecy will probably not result in the win he and his supporters expected. Instead it may very well result in the sinking of our financial markets which are largely buoyed by GCC investments with Petro-dollars.

If these so-called secret societies are the useful idiots in a different plot, who is pulling their strings?

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.